According to the Vietnam Livestock Association, traditional dairy farming hubs such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Son La are facing collapse. Ho Chi Minh City, which at one time accounted for 60 per cent of the national herd, has seen its livestock halve.

Data shows that the national dairy herd’s average annual growth rate fell from 15.4 per cent in 2010-2015 to just 0.4 per cent between 2020 and 2024.

The herd now stands at about 330,000 cows, or 65 per cent of the 2025 target of 500,000. Without urgent policy adjustments, the 2030 goal of 650,000 to 670,000 cows will also be out of reach.

Milk production has slowed in parallel, dropping from 17.7 per cent annual growth in 2010-2015 to 3.3 per cent in 2020-2024. The government’s aim of sourcing 60 per cent of raw milk domestically is no longer feasible.

The association cited three main reasons for the sharp decline: soaring milk imports, with values reaching USD 858 million in the first seven months of 2025, up 34.9 per cent year on year; an overheated market with too many producers and brands, disrupting stability; and the Covid-19 pandemic, which broke supply chains and left farmers unable to sell or sustain production.

To build a sustainable dairy sector, the association has proposed restricting imports of milk inputs that can be produced domestically, expanding school milk programmes, tightening product standards for clarity and transparency, and requiring dairy companies to secure local raw milk sources or use a minimum proportion of fresh domestic milk in production.